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DTSTAMP:20260422T000713Z
LOCATION:503-504
DTSTART;TZID=America/Denver:20231113T115000
DTEND;TZID=America/Denver:20231113T121000
UID:submissions.supercomputing.org_SC23_sess447_ws_pmbss108@linklings.com
SUMMARY:A Performance Model for Estimating the Cost of Scaling to Practica
 l Quantum Advantage
DESCRIPTION:Daan Camps, Katherine Klymko, Brian Austin, and Nicholas J. Wr
 ight (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL))\n\nWe present a simple
  performance model to estimate the qubit-count and runtime associated with
  large-scale error-corrected quantum computations. Our estimates extrapola
 te current usage costs of quantum computers and show that computing the gr
 ound state of the 2D Hubbard model, which is widely believed to be an earl
 y candidate for practical quantum advantage, could start at a million doll
 ars. Our model shows a clear cost advantage of up to four orders of magnit
 ude for quantum processors based on superconducting technology compared to
  ion trap devices. Our analysis shows that usage costs, while substantial,
  will not necessarily block the road to practical quantum advantage. Furth
 ermore, the combined effects of algorithmic improvements, more efficient e
 rror correction codes, and R&D cost amortization are likely to lead to ord
 ers of magnitude reductions in cost.\n\nTag: Modeling and Simulation, Perf
 ormance Measurement, Modeling, and Tools\n\nRegistration Category: Worksho
 p Reg Pass\n\nSession Chairs: Simon Hammond (National Nuclear Security Adm
 inistration (NNSA)); Stephen Jarvis (University of Birmingham, UK); and St
 even A. Wright (University of York, England)\n\n
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